Beiyang Dream

Chapter 21 Mr. Schlieffen, should we revise your plan again?

Potsdam, on the second floor of the west wing of Sanssouci Palace, in that small room with three large maps hanging on the wall.

Chang Desheng followed Lieutenant General Wittich through the door. As soon as his feet crossed the threshold, his eyes scanned the room.

The room wasn't big, maybe thirty square meters at most. One entire south-facing wall was a floor-to-ceiling window, letting in a torrent of sunlight that was almost blinding. On the left wall were three maps—a world map, a European map, and a map of the German Empire—all on large scales, with densely packed borders, railway lines, and rivers, like a CAD site plan.

There were two people standing inside the room.

By the window, a young man of about twenty-seven or twenty-eight years old stood with his hands behind his back, looking up at a world map. He was quite tall, probably around 1.85 meters, even more imposing than Chang Desheng. He wore his Prussian army general's dress uniform impeccably, with a row of large medals hanging on his chest, and a ceremonial sword slung over his belt, making him look quite imposing.

The man stood ramrod straight, chin slightly raised, looking down on everyone.

Chang Desheng immediately understood.

He recognized this guy—no, he'd seen him in history textbooks and documentaries in a "past life." Wilhelm II, Emperor of the German Empire, King of Prussia, the future "Big Mouth Wilhelm," and one of the main figures responsible for World War I.

A thought flashed through his mind: history books say he was disabled in his left hand, sensitive, impulsive, attention-seeking, and always meddling in everything. Well, isn't this just a demanding client? Even harder to deal with than our design institute's old boss, Mr. Wang.

Then he shifted his gaze to the right.

An old man was standing at the other end of the table.

He was around sixty years old, slightly hunched, with gray hair that was neatly combed. His face was lined with deep wrinkles, giving him a somewhat unfortunate appearance.

He was also wearing a Prussian army general's uniform, with two stars on his shoulder boards, indicating he was a lieutenant general. He wasn't wearing any medals, and he was holding a magnifying glass, looking down at a contour map on the table.

He examined it very carefully, moving the magnifying glass inch by inch, much like someone measuring the flatness of a wall with a ruler during a construction site inspection.

Chang Desheng thought to himself: Who is this old man? Could it be... Count Schlieffen? The future Chief of the General Staff of the German Army, the architect of the "Schlieffen Plan"?

The mental ledger flipped open with a clatter:

Why is Schlieffen here too? Could it be that he was "slapped" here by my "tactical scenario" answer sheet? My butterfly effect was only meant to affect the Sino-Japanese War, how did it get involved in the murky waters of Europe as well?

Isn't the mediator effect a bit too large?

But then again… he stared at the focused profile of the old man who resembled Schlieffen and thought to himself: "Old man, I've debated your plan (the Schlieffen Plan) countless times on military forums in my past life. Even if your successor, Moltke the Younger, doesn't make any changes and executes it exactly as it is, the success rate isn't high."

Insufficient manpower, inadequate logistics, the Belgians' fierce resistance, and the British's "irrational entry into the war"... these were all fatal flaws.

Or... how about I think of a way to revise it for you? The benefit of revising the plan...

Also, I wonder if this "William the Client" will listen to anything.

As he was pondering this, Lieutenant General Wittich stepped forward, snapped to attention, saluted, and then reported loudly in German:

"Your Majesty! Your Excellency the Earl! Chang Desheng, a student from Qing China, has arrived!"

Wilhelm II turned around.

Chang Desheng got a clear look at his face: a square chin, a high nose, and two meticulously trimmed mustaches with slightly upturned tips. His eyes were blue, and he didn't look people in the eye, giving off an air of knowing everything.

"Tsk, typical client-side appearance." Chang Desheng thought to himself.

He didn't dare look any longer, quickly took two steps forward, walked to the center of the room, faced Wilhelm II, bent over at a ninety-degree angle, and gave a standard Prussian bow.

What he was thinking at that moment was: "I'll bow then, but you'll have to support me when I become president..."

Then he straightened up, turned to Schlieffen, snapped to attention, and gave a standard Prussian military salute.

Schlieffen then put down the magnifying glass, looked up, and glanced at him. His brows were furrowed, as if he were examining a cat that had suddenly started talking.

Needless to say, he's another white supremacist militarist.

Wilhelm II didn't speak, but simply gave Schlieffen a wink.

Schlieffen understood, took half a step forward, and spoke:

"Regular student".

He spoke German, with perfect Hanoverian pronunciation.

"Three days ago, Major Hindenburg organized a live-fire exercise at the Potsdam training ground. A standard 75mm artillery battery, with six guns, fired fifteen salvos at a distance of 2,500 meters at the simulated position of the 'Z-shaped trench with barbed wire' described in your answer sheet."

He paused, picked up a document from the table, and glanced at it:

"Wooden dummies were placed on the position at the density of an infantry company. After the firing ended, a count was conducted, and the number of 'casualties' dummies... was less than 15 percent."

He put down the document and looked at Chang Desheng:

What do you think?

Chang Desheng answered almost without hesitation:

"Your Excellency, fifteen percent is too high."

Schlieffen frowned slightly.

Wilhelm II snorted but didn't say anything.

Chang Desheng ignored them and continued speaking at a steady pace, as if he were explaining a construction plan to a client:

"The wooden figure is dead. It won't retreat to the reserve position through the trenches before the shelling, it won't go into the artillery shelter, it won't huddle in a hole—it's just a target."

"If the trench system is perfected according to the standards in my answer sheet—the main trench, reserve trench, and communication trench are all deepened to 1.8 meters, the breastworks are thickened, the anti-artillery shelters are constructed according to the standard drawings, the barbed wire obstacle belt is increased to five layers, and the depth is 60 meters..."

He quickly reviewed the key parameters from the "Design Code for Civil Defense Engineering" from his previous life in his mind, and then drew a conclusion:

"Therefore, facing the same artillery preparation, the actual infantry casualty rate should be controlled to below five percent, or even lower."

The room fell silent for a moment.

There were a few birds chirping and chattering outside the window.

Wilhelm II finally couldn't hold back any longer. He took a step forward, stared at Chang Desheng, and raised his voice slightly:

"Chang Xueyuan, according to you, if the enemy, like the French, also has enough barbed wire, is equipped with rapid-fire weapons like Maxim and Gatling guns, and has ample ammunition..."

He pointed to the French section on the European map on the wall:

"So, what price would be required to capture a well-prepared 500-meter-long trench line head-on?"

Chang Desheng sighed inwardly.

It's time to come.

He took a deep breath, raised his head, looked at Wilhelm II, then at Schlieffen, and said, word by word:

"Your Majesty, Your Excellency the Earl. I believe that, based on the current pace of technological progress in the world's major industrialized nations—especially the improvement in steel production, chemical production capacity, and machining precision—technical equipment that benefits the defensive side, such as barbed wire, landmines, water-cooled heavy machine guns, and rapid-fire cannons, will become widespread in the next ten to twenty years, and their costs will also drop dramatically."

He paused, letting his words sink into the room, before continuing:

"By then, the balance of offense and defense in land warfare will be completely shattered. Defense will possess a phenomenal and overwhelming advantage."

"The physical laws of war may be rewritten."

"Stationary warfare, rather than mobile warfare, will become the main form of industrialized warfare in the new era."

"In the future, a protracted and brutal war of attrition, a contest of resources, industrial capacity, and human endurance, to wear down the opponent, may become the main way to determine the outcome of wars."

He saw Wilhelm II's brow furrow, furrowed deeply.

Schlieffen didn't show much expression, but simply tapped his fingers lightly on the table.

Chang Desheng added the last sentence:

"If Your Majesty and the Earl doubt my deduction, they can organize more comprehensive live-fire verification or conduct large-scale war game simulations."

This isn't some kind of mystical concept; it's a technical problem, a mathematical problem involving the kinetic energy of artillery shells, the strength of barbed wire, the rate of fire of machine guns, civil engineering standards, and the length of logistical supply lines. It's entirely verifiable and calculable.

After he finished speaking, he shut his mouth.

The room fell silent again.

Only the flock of birds outside the window were still chirping, sounding somewhat like they were "clucking" and mocking someone.

Suddenly, images from later times flashed through Chang Desheng's mind—not the trenches of the Western Front in World War I, but a long war of attrition that took place on the plains of East Europe. Muddy battle lines, the roar of drones, scattered soldiers in the trenches, and the tireless hand-made drones being manufactured day and night in factories behind the lines…

That was also triggered by a military revolution. Technological advancements once again made defense more important than offense, and the war once again reached a stalemate, turning into a protracted war of attrition, a battle of resources, lives, and powerful backers.

History, that damn thing, sometimes really goes in circles!

"Regular student".

Wilhelm II's voice pulled him back to reality.

The young emperor's expression was not good:

"According to you, does that mean the invincible German army has no chance of once again dominating Europe and achieving decisive victories in the future?"

Chang Desheng almost burst out laughing.

What do you mean, "no"? Your Majesty, you witnessed it with your own eyes later in the Netherlands. It was a veritable torrent of steel, a mighty and overwhelming force—tanks, armored vehicles, Stuka bombers—rolling through the land, and Paris surrendered in just one month. That was a "decisive victory"... though it was only a temporary one.

But he couldn't say it.

He could only keep a straight face and answer seriously:

"No, Your Majesty. Of course not."

"Wars where defense outweighs offense and attrition is preferred over swift victory will still have a winner."

Wilhelm II immediately pressed, "How will it be divided?"

Chang Desheng got stuck.

He quickly started calculating in his mind: How to divide it? No fighting, hold back, we need strategic resolve, you know?

Waiting for breakthroughs in internal combustion engine technology, waiting for the invention of tanks, waiting for the Blitzkrieg theory to mature, waiting for Einstein to develop the theory of relativity... Einstein is still a German Jew!

Once you've developed an atomic bomb, one in Paris, one in London, and one each in St. Petersburg and Moscow, wouldn't that settle the score?

But I still can't say that!

Before he could figure out what to say, Schlieffen suddenly spoke up.

The old count's voice remained calm and unhurried:

"Your Majesty, if defense truly possesses such a significant advantage, then it might represent a new strategic option for us."

Wilhelm II and Chang Desheng both looked at him.

Schlieffen's finger lightly traced a line on the map marking the eastern border of France:

"We can first take advantage of the favorable terrain and build strong fortified areas in key locations to lure the enemy to attack."

"The French army's tradition is to advocate offense and seek decisive battles. They may not be able to resist our temptation and will launch a large-scale attack on our fortified positions."

"At that time," Schlieffen raised his head, his gaze calm, "the advantage of defense will become the enemy's nightmare."

"We can use pre-constructed fortifications, ample firepower, and excellent supplies to severely deplete the enemy's manpower and will to fight in defensive operations."

He paused, then suddenly drew a sharp line eastward from the eastern border of France, across the map to the Poland-Lithuania region:

"While taking a defensive stance on the western front, we can concentrate most of our forces to launch a decisive offensive on the eastern front."

"There's no need to reach St. Petersburg, or even capture Moscow. All we need to do is annihilate the main Russian forces in Poland, take the Baltic coast, and advance into Ukraine..."

"And Russia is likely to collapse as a result, withdrawing from the war prematurely."

"As for Britain..." Schlieffen's finger moved back to the Western Front. "If Germany hadn't sent a large army across the plains of France, and hadn't threatened the ports in the English Channel, Britain would most likely have stayed out of it. Even if they did join the war, what could the British do against our impregnable defenses on the Western Front and the collapse of Russia on the Eastern Front? Join the French in feeding their soldiers into our firepower?"

"When a million more people die, two million more... when their people can no longer bear such senseless casualties, peace talks will become the only option."

"At that time," Schlieffen concluded, "France will bleed a generation dry, Britain will be severely weakened, and Russia will withdraw from the competition. Germany, on the other hand, will gain vast lands and resources in Poland, the Baltic coast, and even Ukraine."

"Even in a war of attrition, there will still be a victor."

The room was deathly silent.

Chang Desheng opened his mouth, but no words came out.

A "boom" sounded in his mind, as if something had exploded.

Holy crap... no wonder he's Schlieffen!

This idea... is fucking feasible!

In World War I, the French were indeed reckless. Joffre, Newell, and their ilk were obsessed with "offense above all else" and dreamed of replicating Napoleon's glory. As a result, they crashed into the German defenses and suffered heavy losses at the Somme and Verdun.

If Germany really adopts a "defend the west, attack the east" strategy... will the French actually charge headlong into it? Given my friend's temperament, it's quite possible!

As for the fighting capacity of Russia on the Eastern Front… Chang Desheng had read many analyses online in his previous life. The Tsarist Russian army in 1914-1915 was disorganized, poorly equipped, and its officer corps was corrupt. If the main German forces had truly focused their efforts on the Eastern Front, not to mention reaching Moscow, conquering Poland, taking the Baltic states, and advancing into Ukraine… it was quite possible they could have actually brought down the Tsar. Withdrawing from the war in 1915? It wasn't impossible.

What about Britain? If Germany hadn't invaded Belgium, would Britain have had a pretext to enter the war? Even if it had, what options did the British have in the face of the stalemate on the Western Front and the defeat on the Eastern Front? Just to send wave after wave of soldiers to their deaths?

By then, millions more people will have died in Britain and France, Germany will have conquered Poland and the Baltic states, there will be no Treaty of Versailles, no territorial concessions or reparations, no Weimar Republic, and no Führer's struggle...

Chang Desheng suddenly felt that his "historical responsibility" was a bit too great.

Oh dear... this timeline is probably going to go completely astray.

We don't even know if the Sino-Japanese War of 1894-1895 will ever happen, and we don't know how this war will turn out.

Of course, I will still be the President!

But whose leg should I cling to back then?

While he was deeply worried about the changing course of history (mainly worried that he had chosen the wrong patron), Wilhelm II suddenly laughed.

The young emperor clapped his hands and looked at Chang Desheng:

"Isn't that a brilliant deduction, Senior Student?"

Chang Desheng quickly composed himself and said respectfully, "I admire Your Excellency's strategic vision."

Wilhelm II grunted in acknowledgment, put his hands behind his back, paced a couple of steps, then suddenly stopped, turned to look at Chang Desheng: "Do you know what your teacher, Mr. Yin Chang, wrote in his letter to me?"

Chang Desheng's heart skipped a beat, and the hairs on the back of his neck stood on end.

The dish has gone bad.

My heart was in my throat. Your Excellency, Your Excellency Li, please don't mention buying 10,000-ton ironclad warships in your letter to the foreign dignitaries... History will change too much, and my magic touch will be gone!