ATPnovel Chapter 13 The Night Before Collapse
Chapter 13 The Night Before Collapse
The 47th year of the Wanli reign, the 8th day of the third month.
Jinan Prefecture.
On this morning, an eerie stillness permeated the air.
Three days ago, a fast horse carrying urgent messages burst through the gates of Jinan, bringing back news that no one could accept—Sarhu had been defeated.
At first, no one believed it.
The scholars in the teahouse were still quoting classical texts, saying, "Lord Yang Hao is a wise and erudite general. His four armies form an inescapable net. How could they be defeated by mere barbarians?" The merchants were still encouraging each other, saying that this was just a "luring the enemy deep into our territory" strategy. The imperial gazette had not yet been issued, and rumors could not be taken seriously.
This is a weakness of human nature. When a disaster exceeds the limits of our understanding, people's first reaction is not to run away, but to deny it.
But Lu Yan knew that this thin layer of paper was about to be torn down.
"Master, something's wrong outside."
Fan Fu ran breathlessly into a secluded courtyard in the south of the city. This was Lu Yan's temporary lodging in Jinan, and also their "forward command post".
"Something's not right."
Lu Yan was sitting at the stone table in the courtyard, whittling wood with a small knife. He was making a simple charcoal pencil.
"Grain prices have gone up." Fan Fu wiped the cold sweat from his brow. "This morning, several large grain shops in the city simultaneously put up signs saying 'Closed for Inventory.' The price of rice on the black market jumped from one tael and two mace to one tael and five mace within an hour. And..."
Fan Fu lowered his voice: "Furthermore, I've seen convoys carrying goods out of the back gate of the Provincial Governor's office every night for the past few nights. The tire tracks are very deep, looking like they're loaded with heavy objects."
Lu Yan paused for a moment, a cold smile curling at the corner of his mouth.
"Ducks are the first to know when the river warms in spring. Officials are always faster than ordinary people to get ahead."
He blew away the sawdust, tested the sharpened charcoal pencil on the paper, and drew a steep upward curve.
"The panic has arrived."
Lu Yan stood up and glanced at Zhao Changying, who was standing guard at the door wiping his knife.
"Changying, go and inform Wang Dengku. Tell him that no matter who comes seeking goods, even the governor's steward, he must keep the warehouse doors firmly guarded. Now is not the time."
"Isn't it time yet?" Fan Fu said anxiously. "Master, rice prices have gone crazy. Shouldn't we also... sell all the ginseng and furs we've stockpiled?"
"Rice prices are rising because people are afraid of starving. But this is only the first stage of panic."
Lu Yan walked to the courtyard gate and looked through the crack in the door at the crowd of people hurrying by on the street.
"The people of Jinan today still harbor illusions, believing that even if Liaodong is defeated, the Guan-Ning-Jin defense line will still stand, and the Jurchens won't be able to break through."
"What we need to wait for is for the second shoe to drop."
"The second boot?" Fan Fu looked bewildered.
Lu Yan didn't explain, but turned around and walked back into the house, picking up a piece of draft paper covered with numbers from the table.
That was a record of the goods he had received over the past few days.
"Fan Fu, go and keep watch at the city gate," Lu Yan said. "Report immediately if any defeated soldiers or refugees arrive from the Liaodong direction."
"Defeated soldiers? Refugees?" Fan Fu was taken aback. "Master, you mean...?"
"Sarhu was just the beginning."
Lu Yan's voice was soft, yet it carried a chilling certainty.
"Next, Liaodong will collapse like a dam bursting. Shenyang, Liaoyang, Kaiyuan, Tieling... one after another will fall. At that time, tens of thousands of refugees will flood into the interior. They will bring fear, despair, and also... opportunity."
Fan Fu swallowed hard, not daring to ask any more questions.
He had a vague feeling that the young boss he was working for seemed to be able to see things that others couldn't.
……
March 12th.
The second shoe has landed.
The first wave of defeated soldiers retreating from the Liaodong battlefield poured into Shanhaiguan like a pack of stray dogs. Soon after, the news spread like wildfire throughout the north.
This time, instead of cold, hard battle reports, we bring you bloody details:
General Du Song has been killed in action!
General Marin has fled!
General Liu Ting was ambushed and died for his country!
Of the four armies, three were completely annihilated. More than 300 civil and military officials and more than 40,000 soldiers were killed in action.
Corpses filled the valleys of Sarhu, and blood stained the ice of the Hun River.
Even more terrifying was the accompanying legend of the Jurchens being invincible, said to be "ten thousand Jurchens are invincible." It was said that these Jurchens wore heavy armor, were impervious to swords and spears, and were only interested in beheading Ming soldiers for a reward.
At this moment, Jinan's psychological defenses completely collapsed.
The once orderly street instantly transformed into a scene of carnage. Rice shops were overwhelmed with customers, and cloth shops were completely sold out. Everyone wanted to exchange their copper coins and paper money for tangible goods that could be eaten, worn, and taken away.
Meanwhile, in the back hall of the Shanxi-Shaanxi Guild Hall, Wang Dengku was as anxious as an ant on a hot pan.
"Scholar Lu! Brother Lu! My living ancestor!"
Upon seeing Lu Yan, Wang Dengku practically knelt down before him. This usually pampered manager was now covered in sweat and disheveled.
"You are a divine strategist! You are Zhuge Liang reborn! I shouldn't have doubted you!"
Wang Dengku grabbed Lu Yan's sleeve, rambling incoherently.
"It's all out insane! Everyone's gone mad! Just now, the Imperial Inspector's steward came in person with a letter, wanting to buy the ginseng we have, asking for a hundred catties! He said he's going to send it to the capital to grease palms, preparing to flee!"
"And several large pharmacies in the city, their owners are all blocking the entrances, wanting to buy our wound medicine. They're asking for five times the usual price!"
"Selling? Brother Lu, shall we sell?"
Wang Dengku stared longingly at Lu Yan, his gaze as if he were looking at a golden Bodhisattva.
He had gone on a crazy spree with Lu Yan, hoarding this warehouse full of "junk," fully prepared to lose everything. Who would have thought that in less than two months, this pile of junk would actually turn into a gold mine!
Lu Yan sat in the armchair, his expression as calm as a stagnant pool.
He picked up the teacup, gently skimming off the foam with elegant and composed movements, a stark contrast to the restlessness around him.
"Manager Wang, in business, you need to be patient."
Lu Yan took a sip of tea before slowly speaking.
"The current price is indeed five times the usual amount. But believe it or not, in three days it could rise tenfold."
"Ten...ten times?" Wang Dengku gasped. "Brother, this is profiting from a national crisis! Isn't that a bit too much..."
"That's too harsh?"
Lu Yan raised his eyelids and looked at Wang Dengku.
"Manager Wang, we're rescuing people."
"Save people?"
"Those buying ginseng now are mostly high-ranking officials and wealthy people. They buy ginseng to preserve their wealth, so they can carry lightweight hard currency when they flee. Making money off them is called robbing the rich."
Lu Yan put down his teacup, stood up, and walked to the huge map of Shandong.
"And those white cloths and wound medicine..."
Lu Yan's voice lowered.
"In a few days, a large number of wounded soldiers and refugees will flood into Shandong. The imperial court's compensation payments are not being made, and the medical bureau's supplies are long gone. Without this batch of goods we have, those wounded soldiers will only be left to die, and the families of those who died in battle won't even have cloth to wrap their loved ones' bodies."
"We sell to pharmacies at high prices so they have the incentive to save lives. This is called—scarcity drives up value."
The merchant's greed triumphed over his fear.
"Okay! I'll listen to you, bro! We'll wait three more days!"
Wang Dengku gritted his teeth.
"But these past three days, those people at the gate..."
Tell them the goods are still en route, but they're stuck due to the chaos of war.
Lu Yan said calmly.
"This is called—hoarding a rare commodity."
……
three days later.
Panic in Jinan reached its peak.
Because all white cloth is out of stock on the market.
As the first list of fallen soldiers from Liaodong was sent back, every household had to prepare for funerals. In addition, there were wounded soldiers who had escaped from the front lines, wrapped in blackened rags, their wounds festering and infested with maggots, their cries of agony filling the streets and alleys.
Medicine for injuries became a lifeline even more scarce than food.
"Master, the time is right."
Fan Fu ran back from outside, his eyes red. He had been out gathering information for the past few days and had witnessed many human tragedies. Although his heart had hardened considerably, he still couldn't bear to see the wounded soldiers in such a miserable state.
"On the black market, a bolt of white cloth is now fetching two taels of silver. Wound medicine is even more scarce and expensive; I heard a captain was willing to trade his warhorse for it to treat his wounded men."
Lu Yan stood by the window, looking at the gloomy sky outside.
He knew that this was not just a business speculation, but a trial of humanity.
"Open the position."
Lu Yan turned around, straightened his scholar's robe, and his eyes were as cold as knives.
"Inform Wang Dengku to begin releasing the goods. Ginseng and furs will only be accepted in cash and gold, with priority given to officials and their families who are preparing to flee south."
"As for the white cloth and medicine..."
Lu Yan paused.
"The price will be set at 80% of the market price. Selling to pharmacies for hoarding is prohibited. A sales point will be set up directly at the entrance of the guild hall, with limited quantities available. Each person can only buy one bolt of cloth and one bottle of medicine."
Fan Fu was taken aback: "Boss, why is that? Aren't we supposed to make ten times our money?"
"To make money from the rich, be ruthless; to make money from the poor, leave them a way out."
Lu Yan's gaze was deep.
"This is called—building a reputation. If we want to establish ourselves in Jinan, money alone isn't enough; we also need a good reputation. Even if it means 'profiteering from national disaster,' we have to do it in a way that makes the people think we are 'benevolent merchants.'"
"Go. Tonight, we'll finish this blood-stained game."